The number of students enrolled in New Zealand’s schools will continue to fall over the next 10 years, with just over 40,000 fewer full-time learners expected by 2035.
The data from Education Counts shows that, after a peak in 2025, student numbers will gradually decrease over the next decade, returning to around levels last seen around 2019.
Read the latest print edition of School News online HERE.
The annual National School Roll Projections (NSRP) are produced to estimate the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) students who will be enrolled in New Zealand schools in future years.
The data for 2025 shows that the total regular school roll is projected to decrease from 842,221 FTE students in 2025 to 818,522 in five years’ time, a decrease of approximately 2.8 percent.
Beyond 2030, the total regular school roll is projected to further decrease, falling by around 18,018, or 2.2 percent, from 818,522 in 2030 to 800,503 in 2035.
Related School News article: Examining the evidence: Giving students the best chance at success
The historic short-term rise and projected longer-term fall, Education Counts said, can be attributed mainly to a mini ‘baby-boom’ of larger birth cohorts, which peaked in 2007 and 2010 and are now moving out of the schooling system.
As a result, the overall school population will drop primarily based on lower births in subsequent cohorts.
The total estimated school-age net migration is 11,103 in the year to 30 June 2025, as per data available at 10 July 2025.
Projected school-age net migration in the short term is 10,215 for 2026 which is lower than predicted in the 2024 NSRP. The projected school-age net migration in the long term is increasing to 12,310 in 2030 based on Stats NZ’s 2024-base net migration projection, which is higher than projected (7,700) in the 2024 NSRP.
Compared to the 2024 NSRP, lower estimated and projected school-age net migration in 2025 and 2026 has resulted in lower total projected school rolls in the short term. However, higher projected school-age net migration in the long term has increased the total projected school rolls.
The specialist school roll is projected to increase over the 10-year forecast period, from 7,174 in 2025 to 8,058 in 2035.
The homeschooling roll is projected to increase from 11,014 in 2025 to a peak of 11,297 students in 2028, before trending slightly downward to 11,132 in 2035.
The projections cover all student populations except for foreign fee-paying students. The primary regular school roll includes school years 1-8 (regardless of school type), while the secondary regular school roll includes school years 9-15.
The specialist school roll covers students with high needs support, who attend either day specialist schools, Oranga Tamariki schools, sensory schools, Regional Health Schools, or residential schools across New Zealand.
The homeschooling roll includes students whose parents, caregivers and whānau prefer to educate their child at home and have approval to home educate. Specialist school roll projections and homeschooling roll projections are projected separately.
