Fewer students completing secondary school
Since 2015, fewer students are completing secondary school, defined as remaining enrolled in education until at least 17.
More students are leaving secondary school before age 17.
The latest figures from the Ministry of Education (MoE) show that retention rates for secondary students – remaining enrolled in secondary education until at least 17 – have fallen from 85 percent in 2015 to 81 percent in 2024.
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In 2024, there was a slight rise in retention rates of 1.7 percent compared to a 2023 low (79.3 percent retention). However, overall retention rates have been falling since 2015.
Females consistently have a higher retention rate than males. In 2024, Asians (93 percent) had the highest retention rate, followed by European/Pākehā (81.4 percent), Pacific (79.8 percent), and Māori (67.1 percent) school leavers.
Early school leavers (aged less than 17) most commonly gave “end of schooling” as the reason for leaving. Continuous absence (absence of 20 continuous days without notice), going overseas, and being granted an early leaving exemption were other common reasons.
The proportion of early school leavers due to continuous absence rose to 15.9 percent in 2024, the highest rate since 2014. The percentage of school leavers moving overseas also rose in 2024.
According to the OECD, remaining in school until the end of the senior secondary years is associated with economic and social benefits. In 2000, a report commissioned by MoE showed that the risk of unemployment for those without qualifications, or with only a Year 11 qualification, was higher than those who left school with Year 12 and 13 qualifications. Each additional year of school was found to have a 5 to 10 percent positive effect on future incomes.
More students are also leaving school with no qualifications. Around 10,600 teenagers, or 16 percent of school-leavers had no qualifications in 2024. This figure is the highest in a decade.
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Speaking to RNZ, Papakura High School principal Simon Craggs said these figures weren’t surprising.
“Since they changed the literacy and numeracy requirements that more and more students, particularly from low socio-economic backgrounds, ESOL backgrounds, Māori and Pasifika, weren’t going to be able to access qualifications.”
Last year, 13 percent of leavers did not meet the numeracy and literacy standards compared to below 10 percent of leavers under the previous requirements. Craggs said that though there are other factors, he believed “90 percent” was due to the new co-requisites.
“The problem I have with that is not that we’re trying to strengthen literacy and numeracy, the problem is the test itself is very narrow.
“It’s not actually measuring functional literacy and numeracy.”
Craggs added he wasn’t sure the NCEA overhaul would help the situation.
“If we were looking at making some tweaks to NCEA, making it a better qualification, making the literacy and numeracy requirement more [functional] then we might have some more optimism for the future.
“I’m not sure that just dumping NCEA and creating a new qualification which is subject-based is necessarily going to make a big difference to those students.”
Pauline Cleaver, Hautū Taupua | acting deputy secretary at Te Poutāhū | curriculum centre at the Ministry of Education said “We know that staying in school longer gives students a stronger foundation for life – boosting their chances of earning meaningful qualifications, securing better jobs, increasing lifetime earnings, developing vital social and emotional skills, and avoiding the long-term risks associated with early disengagement.”
Cleaver said the NCEA overhaul “aim[s] to make sure students have the opportunity to gain a credible qualification and coherent skills and knowledge.
“Students would have a choice over their subjects, and as part of the curriculum refresh we will make sure there will be a range of different options. We know enabling students to have a choice based on their aspirations and interests supports them to stay engaged and in school for longer. Through the public consultation process, we are seeking feedback about ensuring more students stay at school until at least until the end of year 12. We encourage people to have their say about what they think could make a difference – for example, whether there should be any changes to the leaving age.”
